Why Scenarios?

Human beings tend to assume that the future will be a modified version of the present, yet this is unlikely.

Scenarios help people imagine and manage the future more effectively under conditions of:

  • High uncertainty
    Better to be approximately right than precisely wrong.
  • Contested worldviews
    Individual gains can lead to collective loss.
  • Finite resources
    Robust strategies ensure effective allocation of resources.
  • Potential disruptive change
    Conventional tools are too specific to recognise signals of change.

The "Scenarios for the Future" ... will become mandatory reading in my group – it is excellent and thoughtful presentation on a complex and contentious subject.

Director, IT Corporate Standards